Independent research on pre-IPO technology companies and the frontier supply chains behind them - AI silicon and memory, compute clouds, energy and power, defense, space and robotics, across Western and Chinese stacks. Every number traces to a public source; every core claim ships with a falsifier and a resolve-by date; resolutions are graded on the public scorecard.
Reference layer derived from the desk's knowledge graph: 663 companies, 335,197 sourced edges, 1,217 claim events (re-derived at render).
Reference pages
Scorecard - every published claim, its falsifier, resolve-by date, and graded resolution.
Marks table - claimed valuation vs last round vs secondary-market price, per company, per-cell sources.
Napkin table - round size over post-money, thinnest slices first.
Teardowns
tesla-flying-car-no-suppliers (2026-10-17) - The flying Roadster names zero external suppliers for any load-bearing system (fans, actuation, cells, thrusters, tank all Tesla-or-SpaceX-internal) while the Optimus robot's critical layer carries five named external suppliers, four Chinese; the binding dependencies (rare-earth motor layer, certification vacuum, 58-75 kWh refills) sit below the component layer.
two-tapes-figure-17-percent-apart (2026-10-07) - Two secondary tapes disagree materially on the same companies, and the disagreement has structure: Figure prints $203.
xai-780000-gpus-may-efficiency-number (2026-10-07) - xAI's training MFU was reported at ~11% in early May 2026 (The Information; an internal memo confirmed it, the president calling it 'embarrassingly low') against a reported hyperscaler band in the low-to-mid 40s - IF like-for-like, roughly 4x throughput on the table, with BF16-vs-FP8 and scale caveats.
Committed, Not Utilized (2026-10-06) - The compute financing ledger, both sides, graded by who filed what.